Waiting for Change: The Impact of Transition on Local Justice and Security in Yemen

Summary of report:

• In November 2011, following nearly a year of mass protests and violent clashes, a political compromise between the two main political parties forced the resignation of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh and instituted a two-year political transition process.
• Since that time, much of the focus has been on the national reform processes, in particular on a National Dialogue, that were mandated by the agreement that removed President Saleh.
• While these national processes are important, given the weakness of central control and the diverse political pressures in Yemen, local justice and security conditions have an equal ability to either derail the transition or to contribute to its success.
• Just over a year into the transition, local conditions have stabilized in some areas, but security, government services, and economic and social functions have not returned to pre-2011 levels.
• Perceptions of the transition depend most on stability or tangible signs of progress at a local level—signs that were lacking in all four governorates.
• Many argued that the steps taken so far by the transitional government have been necessary and often well-intentioned, but insufficient. Any gains or improvements are fragile and easily reversible if not followed by more solid reforms.
• Although strong local leadership was able to drive some local improvements, as in Taiz and Marib, unresolved national political tensions disrupted security and political progress in all four governorates.
• In all four governorates, the prevailing opinion was that it was still too early to see meaningful change. Without some evidence of concrete results soon, however, the current level of buy-in for the transition process will erode.
• Unless national-level reforms begin to trickle down and change basic quality of life conditions in the governorates, the transition will not be perceived as a success.

United States Institute of Peace 2013

The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by Congress to increase the nation's capacity to manage international conflict without violence.