Stability and development

Is the Dutch Security & Rule of Law Theory of Change ‘climate proof’? (Executive Summary)

Knowledge Platform Security & Rule of Law; Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs

The apparent influences of climate change on conflict and legitimate stability are increasingly salient politically, and in policy making, to Security & Rule of Law (SRoL) policy. This paper explores whether – and how – climate change leads to violent conflict in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCAS), and to what extent Dutch SRoL Theory of Change (ToC) is ‘climate proof’.

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